With Primary Election Day just days away on March 3, 2026, we're publishing this timely roundup to help you stay ahead of races that could significantly reshape the NC General Assembly.

The March 3 primary is days away — and the results will determine the races in November that could reshape North Carolina's legislative landscape heading into the 2027-2028 session. At Roboro, we've been tracking these races since the start of the year. We published two in-depth early looks at the primary field back in January and we're back with a timely roundup as Election Day approaches. 

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Here’s what you need to know.

Roboro Gave you an Early Look at NC Primary Elections 

Back in January, our team published early previews of the March primary races — well before most news outlets had taken a deep look at the full field: 

• Part I: NC Senate Primaries Preview → Published January 5, 2026 — a comprehensive look at all 50 Senate seats, contested primaries, and who's running unopposed. 

• Part II: NC House of Representatives Primaries Preview → Published January 12, 2026 — a full breakdown of House primaries, open seats, and races that could shift the balance of power. 

If you haven't read them yet, they remain the most comprehensive single-source overviews of the primary field. Here's a quick summary of the key takeaways — and what's happened since.

Recent News: What's Developed Since January 

The primary landscape has heated up significantly since we first published our previews. Here are the major developments worth tracking: 

• The Berger–Page Race Has Gone National - The Republican primary in Senate District 26 has become arguably the most-watched state legislative primary in the country. Polls show a tight race, President Trump has endorsed incumbent Sen. Phil Berger, and groups on both sides have flooded the district with advertising. More on this below.

• NC Educators on the Ballot - A grassroots group called NC Educators on the Ballot (NCEOB) is running six current and former teachers in Republican House primaries across eight counties — including Catawba, Davidson, Granville, Henderson, Iredell, Mecklenburg, Vance, and Wake. The group's strategy: since most education policy is made inside the Republican caucus, bring educator voices directly into those primaries. The NC Republican Party has pushed back, calling it Democratic interference. The group denies it.

• Gov. Stein Endorses in House District 106 - In one of the most closely watched Democratic House primaries, Governor Josh Stein has endorsed Rodney Sadler over incumbent Rep. Carla Cunningham in District 106 (Mecklenburg). Cunningham was one of four Democrats who voted with Republicans on veto overrides last year.

• Early Voting Is Already Underway - Early voting began February 12 and ends Saturday, February 28 at 3 p.m. Primary Election Day is Tuesday, March 3, 2026. Polls open at 6:30 a.m. and close at 7:30 p.m.

• Supermajority Stakes in Both Chambers - Republicans hold a bare supermajority in the Senate (30–20) and are one seat shy of a supermajority in the House (71–49). The outcomes of these primaries — and the November general election — will determine whether those margins hold, narrow, or shift entirely.

NC Senate: Key Takeaways 

For the full breakdown, read our NC Senate Primaries Preview → 

• 14 out of 50 Senate districts are holding primary elections in March.

• Senator Bobby Hanig (R – District 1) is not running for re-election — he's filed for the U.S. House District 1 seat. At minimum, one new Senator is guaranteed in November.

• 7 Republican incumbents are in contested primaries, including the landmark District 26 race.

• 2 Democratic incumbents are in primaries — Senators Chitlik (D – District 22) and Lowe (D – District 32).

• 5 incumbents are running unopposed in November (all Democrats): Senators Murdock, Garrett, Robinson, Mohammed, and Salvador. These five are virtually guaranteed to return in 2027.

• Republican supermajority is at risk — a loss of just one Republican seat ends their 30–20 supermajority.

NC House: Key Takeaways 

For the full breakdown, read our NC House Primaries Preview → 

• 42 out of 120 House districts are holding primary elections in March.

• 9 incumbents are not seeking re-election (8 Republicans, 1 Democrat), guaranteeing at least 9 new House members.

• Notable departures include Rep. Sarah Stevens (R), who is leaving to run for NC Supreme Court, and Rep. Harry Warren (R), running for Clerk of Superior Court.

• 22 Republican incumbents have primary challengers — the most for the party since 2010.

• 8 Democratic incumbents are in primaries, including 3 who voted with Republicans on veto overrides.

• 20 incumbents are running unopposed in November (19 Democrats, 1 Republican) — a near-certain group of returning members for the 2027 session.

• Republicans are one seat short of a House supermajority — a gain of just one seat in November would give them veto-proof control of both chambers.

Key Districts to Watch

SENATE — District 26 (Guilford & Rockingham Counties)

• Sen. Phil Berger (R) vs. Sam Page (R)

• The most consequential state legislative primary in North Carolina — possibly in a generation.

• Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger, the most powerful Republican in Raleigh for the past 15 years, is facing the most serious primary challenge of his career from Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page.

Sen. Phil Berger (R)	Sam Page (R)

An attorney from Eden, NC, Berger has served in the Senate since 2001 and has led the Republican caucus since 2011. Under his leadership, Republicans have cut taxes, expanded Medicaid, and drawn legislative maps that cemented GOP control. He enters this primary with a massive fundraising advantage — over $1.58 million on hand heading into 2026 — and a Trump endorsement secured after supporting the president's push to redraw congressional districts.

• Page has served as Rockingham County Sheriff since 1998, making him one of the longest-serving sheriffs in the state. A 6'5" Air Force veteran who wears cowboy boots and a cowboy hat, Page is a longtime Trump ally — he led Sheriffs for Trump in 2016 and chaired Trump's NC campaign in 2020. He's challenging Berger largely over local issues: constituent trust, gambling legislation, and what he describes as a Raleigh establishment out of touch with the district.

• Despite being vastly outspent (Berger's campaign has raised roughly 53 times more than Page's), polls have consistently shown the race within single digits, with at least one survey showing Page up by 10 points in December. As early voting has progressed, dark money groups tied to both sides have spent heavily in the district, and Berger's campaign has accused Democratic-aligned groups of propping up Page.

Phil Berger's Campaign Website → 

Sam Page's Campaign Website → 

Why it matters:

• If Berger loses, the Senate will need a new leader heading into 2027. That means new committee assignments, a new legislative agenda-setter, and potentially a different posture on the budget, education, and regulatory priorities your clients care about. As Western Carolina University Prof. Chris Cooper put it: "I think this is the most important state Senate primary, maybe in North Carolina history."

Recent coverage:

• WUNC: "Longtime sheriff seeks to unseat powerful NC Senate Republican leader" → 

• WBTV: "Hotly-contested state legislator seat in North Carolina could have far-reaching impact" → 

• Elon News Network: "State Senate primary threatens to topple North Carolina's political hierarchy" → 

• NC Newsline: "Analysis: Unmasking the mystery money in the Phil Berger vs Sam Page contest" → 

HOUSE — District 79 (Beaufort, Dare, Hyde & Pamlico Counties)

• Rep. Keith Kidwell (R) vs. Darren Armstrong (R)

• House Freedom Caucus Chairman facing an intra-party challenge — with no Democrat in November.

Rep. Keith Kidwell (R)	Darren Amstrong (R)

Rep. Keith Kidwell, in his fifth term and chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, is facing a Republican primary challenge from Darren Armstrong, a Beaufort County farmer and business owner from Belhaven.  

• The twist: the challenger was reportedly recruited by Rep. Jimmy Dixon (R-Duplin), the House Agriculture Committee chairman, who sent Kidwell a text message saying he was supporting Armstrong — a message Kidwell shared publicly with WUNC.

• The dispute traces back to Kidwell's opposition to a farm bill provision that would have shielded chemical pesticide companies from lawsuits. Kidwell called it unfair to farmers and blocked it; Dixon wanted it passed.

• Armstrong has picked up endorsements from NC Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler and several state officials. Ballotpedia has flagged District 79 as a battleground Republican primary.

Notably: there is no Democratic candidate in District 79. The winner of this Republican primary will be running unopposed in November — making this primary effectively the general election for this seat.

Rep. Keith Kidwell’s Campaign Website → 

Darren Armstrong's Campaign Website → 

Recent coverage

• WUNC: "NC House Freedom Caucus leader faces a primary challenge backed by a GOP lawmaker" → 

• The Assembly NC: "10 NC Primaries to Watch" → 

HOUSE — District 106 (Mecklenburg County)

• Rep. Carla Cunningham (D) vs. Vermanno Bowman (D) vs. Rev. Dr. Rodney Sadler (D)

• An incumbent Democrat who voted with Republicans on veto overrides faces a governor-endorsed challenger.

Rep. Carla Cunningham (D)	Vermanno Bowman (D)	Rev. Dr. Rodney Sadler (D)

Rep. Carla Cunningham, seeking her eighth term, is one of the most high-profile Democratic incumbents facing a primary challenge this cycle. She was one of four Democrats who voted with Republicans on veto overrides last year, drawing intense backlash from progressive voters and party leadership.

• Governor Josh Stein has endorsed challenger Rev. Dr. Rodney Sadler, whose platform focuses on wages, affordable housing, health care, and public education. Vermanno Bowman is also running, advocating for Medicare for all and climate solutions.

Important for your advocacy: There are no Republican candidates in District 106, meaning the winner of this Democratic primary will be running unopposed in November — effectively deciding who represents this Mecklenburg County seat in the 2027 session.

Rep. Carla Cunningham’s Campaign Website → 

Vermanno Bowman’s Campaign Website →

Rev. Dr. Rodney Sadler’s Campaign Website →

HOUSE — District 27 (Halifax, Northampton & Warren Counties) 

• Rep. Rodney Pierce (D) vs. Michael Wray (D)

• A rare rematch: a former legislator trying to reclaim a seat he lost just last year. 

Rep. Rodney Pierce (D)	Michael Wray (D)

In 2024, newcomer Rodney Pierce defeated longtime Rep. Michael Wray by the narrowest margin of any legislative primary in North Carolina. Now Wray is back, making the case that his long tenure and relationships in Raleigh brought significant state funding to the district — and that Pierce's relative inexperience has cost the district.

• This rematch will be a test of whether voters prioritize experience and established relationships, or the fresh direction Pierce has offered.

Rep. Rodney Pierce’s Campaign Website →

Michael Wray’s Campaign Website → 

The Bigger Picture: What's at Stake for the 2027 Session

For anyone engaged in advocacy, lobbying, or legislative affairs in North Carolina, the results of these primaries are worth watching beyond election night. Here's why:

• Leadership changes matter. If Berger loses District 26, the Senate will need to select a new President Pro Tempore. That reshuffles committee chairs, bill priorities, and the legislative calendar heading into the long session.

• The supermajority question. Republicans are one Senate seat from losing theirs, and one House seat from gaining one in the House. The difference between a supermajority and a simple majority is substantial: it's the ability to override the Governor's veto without a single Democratic vote.

• Open seats equal new relationships. With at least 9 House incumbents not returning, advocates will need to build new relationships with incoming members who may have less experience — and be more persuadable on key issues.

Stay Ahead with Roboro

We published these previews early because we believe the best advocacy starts with early intelligence. If you want to stay ahead of legislative developments, bill movement, and member changes heading into the 2027 session, Roboro is built for exactly that.

• Read our NC Senate Primaries Preview → 

• Read our NC House Primaries Preview → 

• Schedule a demo today → 

• Sign up for our Newsletter →

• Questions or data requests? Email us at hello@roboro.ai 

Roboro AI provides legislative intelligence for advocacy professionals. All information is current as of February 27, 2026. Election results will be updated as they become available.