Setting the Stage: Our Early-Session Forecast

At the start of the 2025 North Carolina General Assembly (NCGA) session, we knew the dynamics were primed for a year where veto overrides could play a pivotal role. Republicans hold a veto-proof majority in the Senate (30 Rs to 20 Ds) and are just one vote shy in the House (71 Rs to 49 Ds). That single missing vote in the House means one thing: a few key Democrats can make or break override attempts. 

So, we dug into the data, examining veto override trends from the last three biennia, and surfaced the 7 Democrats most likely to join with Republicans on critical override votes. Our February analysis, The 7 Democrats Who Could Sway Veto Overrides, became an early roadmap for anyone tracking the legislative balance of power in 2025.

Surprise? Not Really – Past Trends Continued 

Fast forward to now: The NCGA has successfully overridden 8 of Governor Stein’s vetoes this session. 

The results? Our forecast matched reality as predicted. 

Here’s the breakdown of Democrats who voted with Republicans to override in 2025, next to Roboro’s early session analysis:

Key Takeaway: Roboro’s February predictions correctly identified the key “swing vote” Democrats - every single one of the votes that helped to override vetoes in August. 

The pattern is clear: The very legislators we identified in February as “most likely swing votes” on veto overrides are exactly the ones crossing party lines this year.

What’s Next on the Calendar

Per the latest Adjournment Resolution, the NCGA will reconvene on several dates between now and the 2026 Short Session. There are still 7 vetoed bills (see below), and the September return dates open the door for action on a broader range of legislation - making it particularly important to watch. 

Note that the General Assembly could still attempt to override the vetoes of these bills. We’ll continue tracking not only the calendar but also the potential cross-party votes that could decide the fate of these bills.

• Bills Still Vetoed: 7 HB 87 (Educational Choice for Children Act (ECCA)) - Vetoed 8/6

  • Governor’s Veto of HB 87

  • No override votes taken

• HB 96 (Expedited Removal of Unauthorized Persons.) - Vetoed 7/9

  • Governor’s Veto of HB 96 

  • No override votes taken

• HB 171 (Equality in State Agencies/Prohibition on DEI.) - Vetoed 7/3

  • Governor’s Veto of HB 171

  • No override votes taken

• SB 50 (Freedom to Carry NC.) - Vetoed 6/20

  • Governor’s Veto of SB 50

  • Senate Override: 30 Aye / 19 No

• SB 153 (North Carolina Border Protection Act.) - Vetoed 6/20

  • Governor’s Veto of SB 153

  • Senate Override: 30 Aye / 19 No

• SB 227 (Eliminating "DEI" in Public Education). - Vetoed 7/3

  • Governor’s Veto of SB 227 

  • Senate Override: 30 Aye / 19 No

• SB 558 (Eliminating "DEI" in Public Higher Ed.) - Vetoed 7/3

  • Governor’s Veto of SB 558

  • Senate Override: 30 Aye / 19 No

Stay Ahead 

When we say Roboro helps you stay ahead, veto override predictions and insights is just one example. 

Our early-session forecast wasn’t just informative and accurate - it’s about giving you the kind of actionable insight that helps you anticipate outcomes and shape strategy months before the votes happen. 

We’ll keep watching the votes, monitoring the floor, and surfacing the insights that give you an edge. 

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